Source / micro-channel public number: Cherry big house (ytdfz8); Author: Cherry Wu Xin Yin
Last weekend, Cher went to Guangzhou for research. There was an enthusiastic fan Li Jun (pseudonym) who accompanied us on the plate. He felt that he had 10 suites in the early years, and it was the lowest in 2014, but even if it was If you look at it again, the real estate speculators have not made any money.
I am so stunned at once, how is it possible?
On the way to driving, Li Jun told us about his unforgettable investment story.
The lens pulled back ten years ago, 2008, it was the period of the global financial crisis, the house price was falling, and Li Jun felt the opportunity to buy a house for the first time!
But after just working for a few years, he only had 80,000 deposits in his hand, so he borrowed tens of thousands of pieces from his friends and made up for more than 100,000 first payment. He bought a set of small squares with a total price of 70 square meters in Guangzhou Tianhe North. Room, the total price of more than 800,000 yuan, the unit price is only 10,000.
In the following years, Li Jun has been working hard. He worked in a state-owned enterprise in Guangzhou. Because of his outstanding work performance, he became the youngest director at the age of 30.
At the end of 2012, Li Jun planned to change the house, and sold the first suite at a price of more than 20,000. He earned more than 1 million by hand.
This time, selling the house made Li Jun taste the sweetness of the house for the first time. It was so easy to make money in the house!
"That kind of feeling is too cool! I am not in the mood to work! So I dare to add leverage to play big." Recalling the feeling of selling the house for the first time, Li Jun's face could not conceal the excitement.
So in 2013, Li Jun officially began to study how to speculate in real estate, plus hundreds of thousands of savings and more than one million in previous years. He changed one set for two sets and bought a set of academic houses in Zhujiang New Town. I bought a set in Guangzhou Science City.
In 2013, Guangzhou's housing prices rose for a year, but due to the prophetic aura of the profession, Li Jun knew that local land finance should continue. He also understood the whole city planning and the future development direction of the city, and even where to build high-speed rail, subway, he Can receive the first hand message.
In 2014, the Guangzhou property market once again stagnated, and he realized that the excellent bottom-hunting opportunity came! So he made a big push into the property market.
This time, Li Jun intends to put a long leverage on all his net worth, but he has only 1 million in cash on hand, and he used two houses to make a second mortgage loan of more than 2 million, raising a total of nearly 4 million in cash.
A total of 8 sets, parents, wives, cousins ... family members to buy a house quota, the average of each set of 1 million, of which 4 sets of Zengcheng, Jindi Wuhu City more than 7000 bought 2 sets, Evergrande Shanshui City bought a second-hand house, Xintang Hailong Spring set; Nansha 2 sets, Times Blue Bay, about 11,000; Science City 2 sets, starting price about 20,000, a set of Poly perfume mountain, a set of CapitaLand .
Li Jun stepped on the cycle of rising and falling house prices. Since the second half of 2014, various places have also relaxed regulation, and the Shenzhen property market is ready to move. In 2015, housing prices in Shenzhen began to skyrocket, one price a day.
The surge will sooner or later turn to Guangzhou, Li Jun is copied to the real bottom, he is counting on this gamble to achieve financial freedom, and then resigned to go, where to go where to go.
Looking at the second-tier cities, housing prices are jumping. Guangzhou, a traditional first-tier city, has a somewhat slower response rate, which is obviously slower than the north, and Zengcheng, Nansha, and even second-tier cities in the suburbs of Guangzhou are not as good.
In the second half of 2016, housing prices in Guangzhou began to be crazy, but the heat has not yet passed to the second-hand housing market in Zengcheng and Nansha. He has been in the Zengcheng house for 15 years and has been in the market for a year.
Li Jun began to rush because his cash flow could not hold back.
In 2015, Li Jun rushed to the city-level unit that thought he had a better platform, but did not expect his advantage to be fragrant in the new unit. His income plummeted, less than one-third of the original, unexpectedly encountered. Liquidity crisis.
Then, the nightmare began to come...
"Zengcheng has a suite under the name of his wife. For three consecutive months, he did not return the monthly payment. The bank asked the law firm to issue a subpoena. At that time, it was scared to fly away. For the first time, he thought he would be arrested. The second time he was numb. ""
In order to maintain bank credit, Li Jun can only borrow money from relatives and friends. In the past, there were 10 large-sized houses in front of friends. Uninformed people thought he was a rich man. Only he knew that he was a negative man, and the car sold. After repaying the loan, he swept the credit card to maintain his basic life. He thought that he had no money to repay the loan. He had no intention of working all day. During that time, Li Jun’s hair fell by half.
"I am embarrassed to participate in the class reunion because there is no money to pay. I have a brother playing cards, I am not accompanying to play with him, he lost, let me pass the WeChat to 2000 support, and finally from three Cary is just getting together."
The kind of shackles that have been stretched out have made Li Jun still fresh in his memory.
If the mortgage is not available, the bank is about to sue the house, but the house has not been picked up for half a year.
The pressure of the bank, the eyes of relatives and friends, the unsatisfactory work... All this makes Li Jun on the verge of collapse.
A pile of gold mines that once counted on financial freedom, are now hot potato.
Li Jun’s house in Zhujiang New Town and Science City was not for sale, but he was reluctant to throw it. The assets of Zengcheng and Nansha’s outer suburbs were too fluid, and he finally decided to cut the meat.
Zengcheng Real Estate was listed from 2015, and the new disc sold 13,000/m2, the Li Jun hangs 10,000, and the intermediary price is 9,500. The difference is earned by the intermediary, and the intermediary has the power to push the disc.
The idea that Li Jun bought Zengcheng at that time was only a few thousand yuan a square meter. This is Guangzhou. It’s a first-tier city, and the home is thousands of dollars. In contrast, the value of Zengcheng is prominent, but I didn’t expect it to rise to more than 10,000. The paper wealth is so hard to realize.
In the end, the 4 sets of Zengcheng finally sold 2 sets at a loss in 2016 and 2 sets at the beginning of 2017. 9,000 yuan sold, and the price of Xintang was already 12,000 at the time. At the beginning, A had already started 7500. With various expenses, two years of repayment, A can say that not only did not earn, but also lost.
Xintang Hailong Spring rose sharply after the high-speed rail station came out. It was originally a stable asset. He also knew that it would definitely rise after the plan was issued, but the cash flow could not stand, and it was sold to the students.
After throwing assets to reduce debts, Li Jun now has three suites left in his hand, one in the urban area, one in Science City, and one in Nansha. Although the assets are not much, he has finally passed the most difficult one.
After experiencing the same dream of a mountain bike, Li Jun no longer looks at the so-called value investment in the suburbs. He said that these are pits, and the bad mobility of real estate is empty talk.
The far-off market responded slowly to good news and reacted quickly to bad news. Zengcheng and Nansha were the fastest in the urban area, and the fastest decline. The new disk was much higher than the second-hand house price. Looking at the rise is the paper wealth, the second-hand housing is realized. Difficult, this is a big taboo for investment.
The most important thing is that the cash flow can't be a problem. Even if Li Jun copied the lowest point, he took a fancy to the big trend and accurately grasped the ups and downs. During this period, as long as his income had a little accident, he could not wait. Before dawn, just like the concept house in Zengcheng Xintang, even if he knew that it would rise, his cash flow could not hold, and he could only be forced to transfer.
High debt is chunyao in the economic upturn, and it is poison in the economic downturn. We must grasp our own leverage and safety first, and wait until the arrival of spring.
You can follow my WeChat public account: Cherry House, get all my analysis and investment advice.
Cherry House, focusing on real estate for ten years, through in-depth study of macroeconomic trends, to grasp the real estate down cycle for readers, not only empty, not only more, only real.