The price is really a strange thing!
Economic theory tells us that price is the monetary expression of commodity value, because the price is affected by supply and demand, so the price fluctuates around value. However, the price we enjoy in reality often makes economists blush.
A McDonald's package, in the United States 5 yuan China to 20 yuan, Mercedes-Benz E320 in the United States 5W yuan equivalent to half a year salary, 98W in China equivalent to 20 years salary, a pair of Italian leather shoes in the United States 50 yuan in China 1500 yuan (completely negligible exchange rate , American workers monthly salary 8K knife, China 4K more RMB) ... Do not say, say more than the anger of the anger: the United States is really so good?
Not to mention commodities, only to say the price of funds, that is, interest rates.
The latest official fund price, the one-year deposit benchmark interest rate is 1.5%, and the one-year loan benchmark interest rate is 4.35%. The interest rate of private lending funds is about 1.5-3 points per month, the annualized interest rate is 18%-36%, the short-term market interest rate is 3-6, the annualized interest rate is 108-316%, P2P, cash loan, consumer loan In the absence of supervision, it is even worse. This is the two extremes.
Is there a relatively fair capital price? Perhaps Shibor, its full name is Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate, which represents the most market-based capital price. It is the arithmetically average interest rate, which is determined by a bank of high credits in a more scientific way, with a single interest, no guarantee, and a wholesale interest rate, which is released at 11:30 every day. Shibor is low when the market is full of funds, and the money is high when it is tight. It has nothing to do with the official interest rate. In particular, the overnight interest rate changes are very sensitive, and the highest is 30%. That is the capital cost of interbank lending! Higher than usury, this Shibor does not last for one year, it is for three months, I am afraid that all commercial banks have to close!
The moment of money shortage has passed, and the mother can not always release water. Shibor still sensitively reflects the supply and demand of market funds. This week's Shibor offer, 1M is 4.1632, 3M is 4.7639, 9M is 4.6230, and the one-year Shibor is 4.6239%. It can be seen that the market funds will be tighter in the future (see the following figure).
Source: National Interbank Funding Center
The practical significance of Shibor for the people is no more than the investment market of A shares and real estate. Shibor's continued low position indicates that the market is very rich. This money may come from the release of water by the mother, or it may come from the closing of the store that caused the bosses to chill, such as Wenzhou Aunt's real estate speculators, speculative gold group, funds for the stock market. The driving role is undoubtedly more useful than the performance support of listed companies. On the contrary, if Shibor continues to rise, it indicates that the market is tight, and the next mortgage interest rate may increase, and the stock market shortcoming may be ignored.
The mother-in-law is used to releasing water, and the reference value of Shibor is to be discounted. Therefore, some people in the West do not recognize that we are a market economy country and have nothing to say.
Whether it is official interest rates, private capital costs or Shibor, the inflation rate may not be considered. Everyone is saying that the money is not worth the money, and I don’t know where the problem lies. Then use the data to talk about the surge in M2 (broad money supply) caused by currency overshoot. To put it bluntly, it is the inflation caused by the PBOC. In 1990, M2 was 1.53 trillion, in 2000 it was 13.25 trillion, and in 2016 it was 155.01 trillion. The highest growth rate was 37.3% in 1993, and the lowest was 12.2% in 2014 (not to mention the actual moisture of M2). After reading these data and counting your deposits in the bank, you may have to feel bad about it. It hurts: If the interest rate of funds or the annual return on investment is less than 12.2%, it may indicate that your assets are shrinking!