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Do the rubber industry chain, these 17 dry goods knowledge must be familiar with the heart


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Original link: Do the rubber industry chain, these 17 dry goods knowledge must be familiar with the heart

Wen|Li Shiqiang, from Shi Dong Rubber

I. Overview of natural rubber

Generally speaking, natural rubber refers to an elastic latex obtained from a natural rubber latex collected from Brazilian rubber trees and processed by solidification and drying.

Brazil's rubber tree is native to the western part of the Amazon River in the Brazilian Amazon. It is hot, humid, calm and fertile. It is now distributed in more than 40 countries and regions in Asia, Africa, Oceania and Latin America, mainly in Southeast Asia.

Natural rubber is a natural polymer compound containing polyisoprene as a main component. Its rubber hydrocarbon (polyisoprene) content is more than 90%, and it also contains a small amount of protein, fatty acid, sugar and ash.

Natural rubber products can be divided into standard rubber, tobacco sheet glue, latex and silicone rubber.

Second, the history of natural rubber development

Ancient natural rubber

The history of human use of natural rubber is very long, dating back to 1600 BC. Rubber balls such as Central America, Brazilian indigenous waterproof fabrics and rubber boots.

Application of rubber after the discovery of geography

In 1736, the French explorer La Condamine brought the natural rubber produced in the Amazon rainforest to France and handed it to the French Academy of Sciences for research. The industry has also developed a keen interest in rubber, which was used to make a wide variety of raincoats, rain boots and ponchos.

Technological innovation brings about a surge in demand South American rubber planting industry rises

In 1844, the American inventor Goodyear developed rubber vulcanization technology, making rubber a truly practical industrial product. In 1888, the British Dunlop invented the world's first pneumatic tire. After entering the 20th century, the automobile industry entered a stage of rapid development, and the demand for natural rubber increased greatly.

In the First World War, the strong demand for rubber in the United States further accelerated the artificial planting of rubber. In the 10 years after the war, the rubber planting industry in South America reached its highest point in history. The largest city in the Amazon basin, Manaus City in Brazil, once became the center of the natural rubber industry worldwide.

Leading new rubber planting pattern from west to east and Southeast Asia

In 1876, the British Wickham quietly transported 70,000 rubber tree seeds out of Brazil, sent them to the UK and cultivated them into seedlings. Afterwards, the British sent the seedlings to Sri Lanka and Malaysia, gradually proliferating into a piece of rubber forest, and gradually spread to neighboring countries. The continuous tapping method invented by British scientist Ridley, then the director of the Singapore Botanic Garden, has greatly increased the production efficiency of the Asian rubber industry.

In the 1930s, South American yellow leaf disease broke out, South America lost its dominant position in producing natural rubber, and the focus of natural rubber production shifted to Southeast Asia.

By 1939, the Second World War had once again pushed up the demand for rubber and also cut off the normal rubber trade. The desire for resources such as oil, ore, and rubber has led Japan to decide to carry out a war of aggression against Southeast Asia.

The evolution of the pattern of several major rubber producing countries in modern times

Indonesia is the origin of large-scale cultivation of natural rubber trees. It was the world's number one rubber producer on the eve of World War II, but its output declined due to the war and the political turmoil in the past 20 years. At present, Indonesia's planting area still ranks first in the world.

Malaysia ranked first in the world in rubber production after World War II. However, due to the substitution of oil palm in the 1990s, its acreage and production began to decline, and its leading position was replaced by Thailand.

In order to improve the production and competitiveness of rubber per unit area, Thailand has been relentlessly reversing for more than 40 years since the 1960s, and its production has increased rapidly. In 1991, it began to rank first in the world and has been maintained.

China's first three-leaf rubber tree was introduced in 1904 from Singapore, which was still in Malaysia at the time. In order to meet the needs of national defense and economic construction, China's large-scale cultivation and development is after the founding of New China.

Third, the natural rubber processing process

Fourth, the natural rubber industry chain

V. Global supply and demand of natural rubber

Global Tianjiao supply was tight before 2010, and began to move towards relatively loose in 2011.

The excesses in 2011, 2012 and 2013 were 4.8, 31.3 and 384,000 tons respectively.

The surplus in 2014 is expected to narrow slightly to 242,000 tons

6. Geographical distribution of rubber producing countries

VII. Production statistics of major rubber producing countries

In 2013, the output of major producing areas in Asia was 1,114.97 tons (an increase of 497,000 tons over 12 years).

Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar and other countries have seen rapid growth in recent years.

Eight, the future production trend of natural rubber

In the past few years, the high yield of natural rubber planting has stimulated the expansion of the planting area of ​​the rubber producing country. The new supply will continue to be released steadily in the next 3-5 years. The annual output growth is expected to stabilize at around 4%, but it is necessary to pay attention to the supply of multiple factors. Interference effect.

Nine, the distribution of natural rubber consumption

Over the past decade or so, China and other emerging markets have led the rapid growth of global natural rubber consumption.

It is expected that global demand for natural rubber will continue to grow by 3-4% per year in the next decade.

X. China market situation

China’s consumption has increased its global share. In 2013, China’s consumption reached 4.15 million tons, and imports increased by 14.4% to 4.01 million tons.

China's imports are mainly based on standard rubber, and the annual import volume of standard rubber (including composite rubber) is about 3.3 million tons. In recent years, the growth of composite rubber is particularly prominent.

Latex and tobacco sheets are growing slowly, around 300,000 tons

Chinese import source structure

XI, the global natural rubber supply needs

Global supply and demand of natural rubber is highly concentrated: Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia account for 70% of global production; China accounts for one-third of global consumption.

China's natural rubber market has expanded rapidly, and the overall growth of overseas markets has slowed down.

Domestic supply growth is limited, currently highly dependent on imports, and the self-sufficiency rate is only around 20%.

The import volume of natural rubber is increasing year by year, the growth rate of standard rubber and composite rubber is prominent, and the growth rate of tobacco sheets and latex is relatively slow.

As a sensitive product, Tianjiao has a limited tariff reduction in the future, and composite rubber has become an important supplement.

Twelve, the first ring of the industrial chain: rubber planting

Global planting area statistics

Statistics on planting area in major producing countries

The global planting profile currently has a total global planting area of ​​approximately 12.8 million hectares, of which approximately 12 million hectares are in Southeast Asia;

The average natural growth rate of Southeast Asia in the past 10 years is 3.1%, including Thailand +4.3%; Malay -2.1%; Indonesia +0.6%; Vietnam 7.6%

Large-scale development and planting began in northeast and north of Thailand, and the big processing plant began to turn to plantation investment; after 5-7 years, the output will be greatly improved.

Africa, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos have grown rapidly in recent years, with an increase of more than 10%. Large-scale planting has been carried out several years ago.

Except for 50% of China's two farms, 80-90% of other countries are privately owned by small garden owners.

There are tens of millions of people in the global rubber planting industry, including 6 million in Thailand, 400,000 in Malaysia and 3 million in China.

Along with the economic development of various countries and the substantial increase in labor costs in recent years, the tapping workers in the production areas have begun to appear inadequate, the distribution has gradually changed, and the cost of unit tapping has increased significantly.

The distribution and seasonal characteristics of rubber forests in various countries The Thai rubber forest traditions are mainly distributed in the south and central regions. With the expansion of the planting area in the northeast and north, the area accounts for more than 25%.

Indonesia's natural rubber planting areas are mainly distributed in Sumatra and Kalimantan. If the equator is bounded, the area south of the equator accounts for 60% of the total area.

Large plantations in Malaysia are concentrated in Kedah, Jeddah, Perils in Perlis, NegeriSembilan in Negeri Sembilan, Perak in Perak and Penang in Penang.

Vietnam's growing areas are mainly concentrated in the southeast and central plateau areas.

China's natural rubber production areas are located in Hainan, Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian.

Global planting analysis points:

The good income of natural rubber planting in the past few years has promoted planting heat in various producing areas. The increase in the above-mentioned planting area will gradually release the output in the future, and the global supply of natural rubber will shift from slightly tighter to slightly looser.

In recent years, the prices of rubber-producing countries and the cost of laborers have increased significantly. However, rubber prices have continued to fall sharply in the past three years, and the income of rubber farmers has fallen sharply.

Plastics and farmers have affected the society, and in recent years there have been frequent protests and demonstrations in Thailand and other places. The Thai government has been forced to collect, subsidize, and reduce taxes. The Chinese government also frequently collects and stores.

Rubber production has seasonal characteristics and is highly susceptible to various factors such as weather, politics, and market conditions. There is often a phase imbalance between supply and demand.

A large area of ​​single tree species will lead to ecological changes in the planting area, and the negative effects in the future may be large.

XIII. The second ring of the industrial chain: Overview of raw materials and two discs

Because the rubber plantation was 90% privatized and scattered in the hands of thousands of households, the raw materials were too scattered, and the capacity of the rubber farmers was limited. The second plate came into being.

The raw material of the two plates is actually a trader, equivalent to a rubber trader. For the purpose of speculation, relying on hoarding or short selling profit.

In the past few years, Tianjiao was in a bull market, and the second-disc merchants accumulated a large amount of wealth. The team grew stronger and the hoarding capacity increased. The maximum trading volume of the second-disc business could reach 10,000 tons. In recent years, due to the continuous decline of the market, the losses of the second-disc dealers have been severe and the scale has generally narrowed.

The raw material supply cycle is lengthened and some of the raw materials are even lost due to storage for too long.

The two discs have largely controlled the quantity and price of raw materials, which has restricted the procurement pace of rubber processing plants, resulting in a very passive rubber processing plant. In recent years, rubber processing plants have generally increased the construction of plantation and raw material procurement stations, with the intention of shortening the procurement process of raw materials.

The domestic situation is slightly different. The agricultural products increase the control of raw materials and attach great importance to the acquisition of private raw materials.

The second-distribution of raw materials has lengthened the supply chain at the source, causing instability in the supply of raw materials, and is also one of the fluctuation factors that triggered the market.

Rubber processing plants should think about how to share the benefits and risks of the two discs; how to integrate the two discs.

Fourteen, the third chain of the industrial chain: rubber processing plant

The rubber processing plant is a primary raw material processing industry. The industry has low technical content, low threshold and low industrial chain extension. However, the capital is large, the risk is high, and the profit margin is extremely low. Therefore, the scale of the industry is uneven. The total number is gradually decreasing and tends to concentrate.

The global rubber processing plant is estimated to be nearly 500, including 145 in Indonesia, more than 100 in Thailand, and 40 in Malay, mostly in Malaysia. More than 40-50 in China.

China's rubber processing plants mainly include Hainan Agricultural Reclamation, Yunnan Agricultural Reclamation, Sinochem International, Guangdong Agricultural Reclamation, plus private factories such as Gaoshen and Hujulian. The farmer's milk label has become a special glue for futures, which is out of touch with downstream demand.

Vietnam's rubber processing has been strongly supported by the government in recent years. The main processing plant is the Vietnamese head office, accounting for half of the total. The overall development model is similar to China.

Other small countries in Southeast Asia and processing plants in Africa and other places are relatively concentrated, and the competition is not very serious.

The annual global rubber processing capacity has exceeded the annual supply of raw materials. The total global processing capacity is about 25%. In order to meet the raw materials needed for production, the processing plant has to bid for raw materials.

The rubber processing plant belongs to the survival of the cracks. It is subject to the two-disc raw materials and is subject to the buyer. The market fluctuations cause great risks to the trading.

The processing profit of rubber processing plants is extremely low, causing the operators of rubber processing plants to obtain profits, have to light production, heavy trade, heavy futures, and move closer to the speculators' identity; increase market fluctuations.

The sales model includes long-term contracts, cargoes, and stocks. In order to achieve the control of the equipment while the risks are controllable, the factory tends to increase the proportion of long-term sales in recent years.

Sales target—more than 50% of direct sales to downstream factories before 2008, but after 2008, the proportion of direct sales decreased, and the number of traders increased rapidly, which led to a rapid increase in market circulation and increased market volatility. The reduction in the number of direct sales has also led to a gradual decline in rubber quality, especially for the Chinese market.

After 2011, the strength and scale of traders were damaged, the awareness of downstream strategic purchases increased, and the proportion of direct sales rebounded.

Rubber processing plants are fiercely competitive and uneven, calling for the leading enterprises.

Rubber processing plants weaken the pricing power of rubber prices, pricing power is weaker than trade links, and weaker than other raw material suppliers.

The rubber processing plant will be gradually reorganized and integrated. More small factories will disappear in 3-5 years, and there will be factories with an annual output of more than one million tons.

Rubber processing plants will continue to increase direct sales to downstream plants to meet the needs of downstream plants.

The investment and cooperation of downstream factories in rubber processing plants will gradually develop.

Fifteenth, the fourth ring: rubber trade

The macro-speaking of rubber trade should be divided into spot trade and futures speculation trade.

Rubber has the multiple attributes of agricultural products, industrial products, financial instruments, the limitations of production areas, the complete competition of suppliers, the rapid growth of downstream industries, the vulnerability to various factors, and the large volatility of the market. Huge profit-seeking space.

The changes in the economic environment and the innovation of financial instruments have made the trade pattern of natural rubber constantly evolving, and the scale, level and operation mode have been increasingly innovated, and it has continuously affected the rubber upstream and downstream and the industrial chain.

The operating groups of traders are increasingly diversified, and a large number of other industries and fields of funds are involved in the rubber trade; the operation mode has also expanded from simple price speculation to arbitrage and financing, which further strengthens the financial attributes of rubber products; the decision mechanism of rubber prices is increasingly complicated. .

Global natural rubber trade flow

Singapore - traditional natural rubber trading center

Excellent geographical conditions, mature financial and trade environment and special historical conditions (Singapore's history was once a British colony, a transit point for the UK to import various resources from Southeast Asia), making Singapore a traditional natural rubber trading center. .

Before the Second World War, the Chinese (mainly Fujian-based merchants) gradually regained control of the rubber trade from Europeans. Since then, the Singapore rubber trade has been controlled by the Rubber Association of Singapore (RAS), which consists of the Singapore Gum Association (Chinese Business), the Singapore Rubber Chamber of Commerce (European Chamber of Commerce) and the Singapore government. The Singapore Gum Society plays a major role.

Traditional rubber international traders are concentrated in Singapore, and international tire companies have set up procurement agencies in Singapore. The size and strength of Singapore traders have gradually declined compared with China in recent years. Currently, there are about 10 active and active traders. Being reduced.

The rubber trade in Europe and the United States has gradually shrunk, and the industry has become dominated by Asians; currently there are only a few rubber trading companies in the United States; and traditional British and French companies have basically withdrawn.

China gradually emerges as a new spot trade center

Before 2000, China's economy was relatively closed, rubber demand grew steadily, and China's rubber trade overall development was slow. Natural rubber imports have long been operated in the form of “quota + licenses”. Most of the import trade is concentrated in the hands of a few state-owned enterprises, and private enterprises have limited participation. During the period, only a few dozen companies engaged in rubber trade in the country were relatively small in scale. At the same time, the domestic rubber trade gradually developed, and formed several major regional distribution centers in Hainan, Yunnan, Qingdao, Shanghai, Tianjin, etc., and the corresponding futures varieties came into being.

After joining the WTO in 2001, China's rubber feed processing trade began to flourish and the rubber import trade began to accelerate. In particular, the development speed of the Shandong region is staggering, and the Qingdao Bonded Zone has gradually grown into the most important rubber distribution center. The number of US gold rubber traders began to increase rapidly, and the first batch of private rubber traders got better development opportunities. There are more than 100 national traders here. Since the quota system was difficult to meet the market demand for imported rubber, the flexible form of composite rubber began to rise in 2003.

In 2004, in line with the process of the ASEAN Free Trade Area, China’s natural rubber import quota system was abolished and natural rubber trade became more active. Imports of rubber began to surge, and the group of US gold rubber traders expanded dramatically. The national trading company has over 500.

After 2008, China gradually emerged as a new rubber trading center. Chinese tire companies that have experienced the baptism of the financial crisis have seized the opportunity of market development and expanded against the trend. After the economic crisis, the mutual mistrust between the upstream and downstream of the rubber led to a decrease in direct sales and an increase in the space of spot traders. The loose credit environment, the gradually lowered tariff level, and the sharp rise in rubber prices have begun to attract more traders and financiers to participate in the rubber trade. The total number of rubber traders nationwide reached the highest in 2012, exceeding 1,000. (It can be seen from the number of participants in the previous rubber annual meeting.)

The size and influence of the domestic futures market is increasing

With the expansion of domestic rubber demand and capital, the domestic futures market is also increasingly active.

Hujiao positions and trading volume are much larger than Japan and Singapore, attracting and accommodating dozens of times the funds in the Tokyo and Singapore markets;

Hujiao gradually stepped out of the original passive state and began to actively lead the changes in the price of natural rubber market;

Hujiao and the Japanese and Singapore markets have a normal price difference, and they have begun to independently reflect the supply and demand of the domestic spot market, and have truly become a reference indicator and auxiliary market for domestic spot operations.

Traditional traders encounter difficulties after 2011

In the past few years, considerable speculative profits of rubber have attracted a large amount of funds for rubber trade. The total number of domestic traders is nearly 1,000, of which more than 700 traders engaged in US gold rubber;

A large number of speculations have led to a continuous increase in Qingdao natural rubber stocks;

The sharp decline in 2011-2013 has caused some traders to withdraw from the market. Since 2013, the number of traders has begun to decrease. It is expected that the follow-up of the traditional rubber traders will continue to shrink with the long-term downturn.

Innovation of rubber trade mode in the new era

Arbitrage: The spot and futures of natural rubber are increasingly integrated. The arbitrage trading in the futures market has become the mainstream. The traditional spot field has also created a group of traders with cross-market arbitrage and arbitrage as the main mode of operation.

Trade finance: Domestic and international spreads have widened, domestic financing has been difficult, and the renminbi has continued to appreciate. In the past, the operation of financing through bulk commodities has increased, including rubber. With the increase in the price of rubber, the financing operation has been reduced due to risk aversion.

Traders' contract: Domestic traders are also beginning to sign long-term contracts with suppliers to ensure the stability of their operations, and most of their risks are hedged through the futures market.

Online trading platform: In addition to the traditional futures and spot markets, various new electronic trading platforms are also being researched and launched, and e-commerce further penetrates into the natural rubber market. Need to pay attention to its further development.

Natural rubber trade summary

The increase in the global natural rubber trade mainly occurs in emerging market countries, with China accounting for the vast majority of these and evolving into new global trade centers, and the gaps in India and other places are also expanding.

China has further become a source of global demand and price volatility. There is no doubt that rubber pricing centers have gradually shifted from traditional Japan and Singapore to Shanghai.

In China, in addition to the physical trade demand brought about by the downstream and tire product demand growth, the loose credit environment, large fluctuations in market prices, and the massive involvement of financial instruments have also led to a surge in virtual trade demand.

At the end of the big bubble era in the first 10 years, the current situation of nearly 1,000 traders will face a big wave. The long-term development of the traders' group must be strength, credibility, and risk control, which can provide value for the upstream and downstream industry chain.

Some powerful traders began to invest in upstream resources. Some small and medium-sized spot chambers of commerce will be converted into professional futures investors. The rubber trading method will be upgraded, and a new spot trading electronic platform will emerge. China's rubber trade will become increasingly rational and standardized.

Sixteen, the fifth ring: the downstream industry

Natural rubber consumption field

Everyone (except in some remote areas) is a rubber consumer, covering tires, shoe materials, hoses, tapes, latex products, other rubber products and so on.

Consumers are relatively rigid and stable in the use of rubber products and will not fluctuate significantly. Consumers' consumption habits and perceptions of brands need to be guided by rubber manufacturers.

The growth of rubber consumption is a long-term and steady process. Dependence on the car continues until humans have invented new universal vehicles. With the economic development, the consumption growth of demand for latex products and other rubber products is accelerating.

Global Tire Market Overview The tire market uses 70% natural rubber, which requires special attention.

Tires can be divided into semi-steel tires and all-steel tires. Semi-steel tires are mainly used in passenger cars and light trucks. All steel tires are mainly used in passenger cars and engineering vehicles. In the 14 years, the world is expected to sell 1.5 billion sets of semi-steel tires and 170 million sets of all-steel tires.

75% of tires are used in the tire replacement market and 25% are used in automotive OEMs. Specifically, about 70% of semi-steel tires are used for replacement, and 30% are used for matching; 83% of all steel tires are used for replacement, and 17% are used for matching.

The whole steel tire consumes about 30 kg of single rubber and the average of semi-steel is 1-1.5 kg. The change of the whole steel tire market has the greatest impact on the natural rubber.

Tire industry competition pattern

The world tire market is Asia-Pacific, North America and Europe. In the 2013 global tire top 75 list, there are 26 companies in mainland China, 5 in Taiwan, 10 in India, 6 in the US, 4 in Japan and 2 in Russia. , 3 in South Korea.

The total sales of Bridgestone, Michelin and Goodyear reached US$73.7 billion in 2012, and the top three natural rubber consumption was close to 3 million tons, which is equivalent to the rubber consumption of the Chinese tire industry.

For cost and market reasons, the global tire manufacturing industry is gradually shifting to the Asia-Pacific region. China has become the world's largest producer and exporter of tires. At present, China's annual steel tire production is about 100 million, semi-steel tires are about 450 million, all steel tires account for about 60% of the world's production, and semi-steel tires are also nearly 30%. Among them, the general tires are used for export.

There are nearly 300 tire manufacturing plants of different sizes in China, and about 130 radial tire factories. Nearly half of the production capacity is concentrated in Shandong, and the market competition is extremely fierce. But the overall size is far from the international giants.

China's tire production enterprises are divided into three types: state-owned, joint venture/sole proprietorship, and private-

The first one is Zhongce, Triangle, Linglong, Fengshen, Double Star, Double Money, Chengshan, South China and other large enterprises. It is mainly made of all steel tires, engineering tires and medium and low grade semi-steel. The second is Michelin, Bridgestone, Goodyear three multinational tire giants, as well as joint ventures such as Jiatong, Zhengxin, Cooper and Jianda. These products are mainly for passenger tires. Occupy the majority of matching and replacement market share. The third type is private enterprises such as Yongtai, Hengfeng, Yongsheng, Xingyuan, Jinyu, etc., and more production engineering tires, agricultural tires, heavy-duty tires, etc., have made great progress in recent years.

Tire industry growth trend

The continued development of the automotive industry ensures that tire demand continues to grow. among them:

In developed countries, the car ownership base is large, the new production and sales are slowing down, and the tire replacement market is in great demand.

Emerging markets such as India and Brazil will maintain high growth for several years to reach an average level.

China's auto consumers are still buying more than 75% of their vehicles for the first time. The two booms in production and sales will remain at least 10 years. The second and third-tier cities, county and township-level car purchases are huge, and the demand for tires is large. The demand for new car ownership and tire replacement began to be released 3-5 years ago, and the Chinese tire replacement market will continue to expand rapidly in the next few years.

The tire industry continues to expand rapidly

Stimulated by the lucrative profits and steady increase in demand in the past few years, global tire companies are still in a rapid expansion cycle, both domestic and foreign companies are actively building new capacity.

Negative: The resulting overcapacity and vicious competition in the same industry will also heat up, and industry integration is imminent.

Downstream industry summary

The improvement of living standards and income is the long-term driving force for promoting the growth of rubber consumption. China is still in the process of urbanization development, and the space for consumption of natural rubber in the fields of automobile and medical care is still huge.

China's tire industry has developed first, and has now become a global tire processing base, but the domestic market still relies mainly on international brands, and the export market continues to be subject to foreign economic fluctuations and policy influences.

China's tires are still cost-driven, concentrated in the low-end market, low profit margins, and must be upgraded to brand marketing in the long run to enhance brand and technology added value, especially semi-steel tires.

The rubber downstream factory has the same influence on rubber prices as the upstream rubber processing plant, and the pricing power is not large.

China's tire industry procurement model needs to be improved, and it is necessary to learn from overseas giants with humility, and the combination of long-term contracts, cargo and spot needs to be reasonably matched.

China's tire sales model needs to be changed. It is necessary to reduce dependence on tire traders, shorten the supply chain, and reduce vicious competition among industries.

The tire industry's short-term capacity expansion is relatively fast, and enterprises are facing industry consolidation and reorganization; calling for leading companies. Non-tire rubber products are developing slowly.

Seventeen, a few minimal arguments outline the natural rubber industry chain

The natural rubber supply and demand maintains a dynamic balance, but it is often unbalanced due to seasonal factors and speculation.

The development of the natural rubber industry chain is not balanced, the right to speak in the processing sector is not high, and the overall heavy investment machine is lightly processed.

The supply chain has been stretched excessively. There are serious speculations in the raw material trade, rubber trade and tire trade. The processing links are extremely low in profit, which makes them have to participate in speculation and aggravate market volatility.

The pricing of natural rubber is actually the key in the spot and futures trade links. Through the comprehensive analysis of the upstream and downstream production and demand situation, surrounding finance, commodity market, national policy and other relevant factors, it determines its speculative time, speculative varieties, speculative direction, A lot of money has been triggered to help. This link is the core of rubber fluctuations. Speculative demand is far greater than real production demand.

The supply chain has repeatedly evolved to destocking and increasing the inventory process, leading to fluctuations in the market.

In the future, Tianjiao needs to improve supply chain management, and plan, coordinate, control and optimize the entire supply chain system. The goal is to get the right products at the right time, the right quantity, the right quality. And the right state, sent to the right place, and the total cost is optimized.

Both upstream and downstream have faced integration and restructuring in recent years; traders are facing the survival of the fittest and upgrading.

The supply chain is interlocking, balanced development, and cooperation and win-win is the long-term development strategy.

Finally, I wish all friends in the rubber industry can keep up with the new era of innovation and transformation in the rubber industry, work and investment smoothly, good luck!

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