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Shenzhen has a big move! Second-tier cities are robbing people to dare to order hard goods?

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Abstract: The supply of land in second-tier cities is an important foundation for attracting entrepreneurial innovation, and it can take the initiative in super-city hegemony.




Author | Zhang Yinyin

To a large extent, the battle for talents that the ears have been annoying is the first to be initiated in Shenzhen.

Nowadays, Shenzhen has once again made a big move, and the graduates of fresh graduates can apply for it. There is no need to apply through the employer or agency, and optimize the bidding process, and settle down to achieve “second batch”.

Graduates report online, automatic system review, cancellation of household registration and other registration materials, non-deep household graduates do not need to report on-site.





Does this make other cities have something to say?

Xi'an, Chengdu, Wuhan, or Tianjin, which has been patched again and again, and convenient settlement procedures, in the face of personal Internet direct processing, is not an era.

Perhaps this is the gap between the way of thinking and the stage and level of urban development. Of course, Shenzhen does not need to worry about attracting too many talents for its convenience.

1. Shenzhen has made another big move and settled in the Internet “second batch”, but it is not so worried about people crowding out. The only worry is that the house is not enough.

On the one hand, Shenzhen's strong employment and entrepreneurial absorption capacity is there; on the other hand, the price of the Shenzhen house itself is a firewall, everyone is rational; again, the Guangdong college entrance examination and Tianjin are incomparable, Shenzhen naturally does not take advantage of.

Several factors are a pair of rushing and balancing. Shenzhen will not worry that its registered population will increase too much and too fast. It is precisely Shenzhen that is the smallest registered household in all the megacities, so that more new Shenzhen people settle down, but Shenzhen really hopes.

Therefore, even if Shenzhen puts the settlement standard low, the settlement form will be simplified and convenient, and there will be no actual situation in some cities.

In the view of leveraged games, it is unreasonable to restrict people to accounts. All cities should not make their accounts so important. Where a person can be employed, he should receive appropriate public services and security.

From this perspective, it is not possible to cancel the household registration restrictions for the time being, and the city that initiated the talent war is at least a large-scale relaxation of the settlement policy, and it is also an improvement - even if it seems to be looking for a replacement. In any case, let go always progress.





Other urban hukou is a naked ticket, a tool for getting on the car or arbitrage. Shenzhen's hukou is not so exaggerated, of course, there are similar situations - but the price is here, buying can not afford itself is a problem.

Shenzhen is really proud, but he also has his very real predicament. The housing prices are too high. How can young people who value high-quality jobs in Shenzhen and excellent entrepreneurial conditions can afford it? At the very least, where do you live?

Therefore, on June 5, the “Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Housing System and Accelerating the Establishment of a Multi-Person Supply Multi-channel Guaranteed Hire Purchase and Housing Supply System (Consultation Draft)” was sought from the public on June 5.

According to the opinion draft, Shenzhen will target various groups such as residents and professionals with different income levels, and plans to divide housing into three categories: market commodity housing, policy support housing, and public rental housing. It is planned to increase construction by 2035. A total of 1.7 million sets of housing will be raised, of which the total number of talented housing, housing-type housing and public rental housing is not less than 1 million.

First, the leverage game first makes a total and structural analysis. 1.7 million sets, starting in 2018 and ending in 2035, totaling 18 years, with an annual average of nearly 100,000 sets.

In the past two years, the annual population growth rate in Shenzhen has been five or six hundred thousand.

Of course, some groups, some of the requirements for living are not so high, such as the settlement through the dormitory, the village in the city, their own rental, including group rent. Even so, if the population growth rate in Shenzhen will maintain this speed in the future, it is clear that this supply plan, in terms of the total amount, may still seem a bit tight.





In the future, Shenzhen, the commercial housing will only account for 40% in the future. In other words, there are only about 700,000 sets of commercial housing, with an annual average of less than 40,000 sets.

Therefore, the competition for talents in other cities is to attract people to buy a house. In Shenzhen, there are not so many houses that can be sold to you.

2. Many second-tier cities are no longer cheap, and the resident population increase is not obvious.

If some second-tier cities used to be attractive, many of them are no longer cheap. At the same time, the ability to create jobs is always an economic law, not a mouth can be created. Therefore, it is reflected in the resident population, as shown in Figure 1:





Figure 1. Data sources of permanent population growth in major cities in China in 2017 | Local statistical yearbooks, statistical bulletins, statistics bureaus and other government website mapping | Leverage games · Zhang Yinyin

In 2017, the first, second and third permanent residents were Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hangzhou, and they were not inland cities. It’s not so powerful. There are still many cities that like to show off the settlement data. The leveraged game just needs to say that if you settle in more places, the resident population will increase but not much. Is this not a face?

Many people will also say that the increase in the resident population is flawed, and the leverage game certainly understands.

However, all of you have thought about it. This is the result of a sample survey conducted by the statistics department. There is not much interest and the need to capture the eye. And the talent attraction, heat data released by the various institutions and companies we see every day... The ghost knows how he came? Secondly, he has many defects.

Those things are even less strict in statistical science, and some city marketing is still so hard, who knows what is going on. Therefore, the leveraged game is a bit disgusting to see some cities holding the ranking data of many institutions all day long.

You have been bragging for a long time, and the resident population has not increased much. It is not obvious at all. In order to make up for the shortcomings of the resident population increase, the leveraged game also counted the incremental data of the employee pension insurance participation in major cities in 2017.





If a person goes to a place to work, especially the so-called talent competition, if you have not paid for the old age, can you still say that your city really attracts a lot of employment and entrepreneurship?

Buying a house is a lot of attraction, the supply of the ticket is not low, and then some land supply is still in general, this way. But college students can't help, don't you buy? Buy one at least peace of mind, and buy iron in the pot.

and then? Most of them became house slaves and did not dare to lose their jobs. How many people can start a business and innovate?

There are many people in China, urbanization is not over yet, and there are so many currencies, and it is impossible to make house prices not expensive. It is also necessary to balance it. Otherwise, the assets on the books are so high, but they have not created more things that can make money globally. Is this not a big country or a strong country?

Regardless of the second-tier or first-tier cities, it is useless to say more, and more to do, this is the most real. Land finance has also been maintained, housing prices have basically stabilized, and people have come to buy houses, which is not a bad thing.





3. More land supply in second-tier cities is an important basis for respecting people and attracting entrepreneurial innovation, and can take the initiative in super-city hegemony.

After talking for a long time, the leverage game feels that if you really respect people and hope to get the most out of "grabbing people", then more land.

The house is so good to sell anyway, the Chinese people buy a house belief so firmly; at the same time, many people in the north can not afford it, and some people who want to live a better life are also leaving. So, how to attract these people, especially to attract more. Then more land and more houses.

For example, the logic of some cities, if you buy a house, it is easy to settle, employment, and start a business. If you supply more cities, you will often get more people.

In fact, it looks at the problem in Figure 1. Before Changsha and Chongqing were just one of the cities with the highest inventory. That is, there is more land supply, which has caused more inventory in the midst of a downturn. At the same time, they have become the cities with the largest population growth in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hangzhou.





Some friends may say that every city has new births and deaths. How do you count the increments? In fact, it is very simple. You can look at the data. The impact of this thing is not great. The birth rate in China is really low. On the contrary, there are more and more deaths in the aging society.

Leverage games have always been lifted. China is so big, and super-city hegemony is actually a battle for mass in China. In this case, it is necessary to provide more land for the mass of the big city.

The so-called urban mass, look at Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area behind them, the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area centered on Shanghai, and the Pearl River Delta metropolitan area.

People will vote with their feet. In this super-populated country, which city has maximized the economic volume and the population of the central city and metropolitan area, there is no doubt that it is a super city.

Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen will not say anything, and super status has already taken shape. The future of the new super city, how to provide land, how to build, determine the size of the city.

Of course, you will say that the economy will not become a ghost town, but will China's potential super city become a ghost town? will not.

The leverage game has previously calculated the housing supply situation of the top 10 super cities in 2018. As shown in Figure 2 below:





Figure 2.10 Sources of residential land supply rankings in 2018 in major cities | Government website or authoritative media public report drawing | Leverage game · Zhang Yinyin

Shenzhen is the least obvious, but he can be proud.

Then look at the land supply plan for homes in Beijing and Shanghai. Are some cities shameful? Leverage games have always said that our property market is actually a policy city.

On the other hand, the amount of land supplied by a city can directly reflect the direction of the policy, as well as the determination of the city to regulate housing prices. The major cities are rushing to fight the people. In the end, they are sincere and looking for the property market to see the number of people and the increase in the resident population.

Nowadays, everyone is “grabbing people”. Even Beijing is so strong. Previously, the policy “Implementing Action Plan for Optimizing the Business Environment” was adopted. The most eye-catching thing is that Beijing will build more than 1.5 million units in the next five years. Talents are expected to settle down.

When each city of a certain volume joins the battle for talent, the so-called squatting is gone. Everyone actually returned to the same starting line.

However, because of the competition for talents, it has been a good thing to improve the urban business environment. Only the oversized and megacities are more and more like college students. Are the small and medium-sized cities in their respective provinces more and more sad? Behind every city with a population of nearly 10 million and over 10 million people, there are imbalances in the development of large provinces and provinces.





As a super city or provincial capital of our country, your city is so big. Is it necessary to pull a small brother from the whole country or the province? Should it be inclusive of low-income people and migrant workers? A city must be compatible and packaged. From the perspective of urban division of labor and function, many jobs must be so-called migrant workers, so that they can make more money and the city's operating costs will be lower.

If you are poor and love rich, sorry, you will be more expensive and expensive when you live in the city. You think that you are a white-collar worker, and your money does not have much purchasing power.

And to let all these people live and work in peace, or to have a commodity house, cheap public rental housing, do a little more. This kind of life, work, entrepreneurial and innovative environment is like words.

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