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What the original clothing buyer did was not the trend forecast, but...




The prediction of fashion trends is a systematic work, not just for individuals, but not for everyone. I will introduce you to the entire forecasting system today.

It should be noted that the job of the buyer is not to predict the trend, but to select the trend that suits the brand from the trend of the mass. Trends are predicted by professional organizations and personnel who will provide relevant information.

Today I will focus on how to make trend forecasting. Although the buyer does not need to practice, but has a specific understanding of how to do so, in order to know how to localize and brand. Because there are thousands and tens of thousands of trends every year and every season, it is necessary to choose the trend that suits the brand in light of the brand characteristics.

All in all, the job of the buyer is more of a choice than a prediction.

First let's take a look at some basic concepts.

1. What is the fashion trend

The fashion trend has two elements. First, there must be a certain size of the audience . Two people are useless, and there must be a group of people. Second, the characteristics of the epidemic must be common . For example, when we do street shooting, we actually look at the commonality.

2. The life cycle of the trend

The life cycle is a very important theory. Everything has a life cycle and fashion trends.

Everyone looks at this picture (here), everything has a beginning, then slowly develops to the peak, then to the peak, then slowly declines, and finally withdraws from the market.

This is the same as the life cycle of a business. If a brand has survived for 20 years, after a peak, it may be going downhill; if it is a newly born brand, it is on the rise, then its growth rate will be much higher. If a new business is very successful, the rate of increase in performance must be high, and even higher than that of a mature company.

The same is true of the trend element. Understanding the life cycle diagram is very helpful for us to judge how long a trend element can be popular.

This cycle can be as long as ten years, or as short as six months or even months. Short-term popular models , which may be popular after a season, will not be popular again. English is called fad; long-term popular models can be popular for ten years or even longer. For example, the oversize bag has been popular for more than a decade. This element has been in existence for a long time, and it may slowly begin to decline in the later stage, but for now it has a very long life cycle.

3. How to judge the trend

To judge the fashion trend, first judge its life cycle : it is a season, six months, one year, or five years, ten years... In terms of wide-leg pants, we believe that this trend element is still in the ascendant stage, next year. It should be more popular, and its life cycle may be as long as two or three or even three or four years.

Second, we must judge which stage of the life cycle this trend element is in . As the previous curve shows, it is the start phase, the ascend phase, the maturity phase, or the recession phase.

So for the buyer, what is the impact of the life cycle of the trend element and the stage of the sale?

It is important to note that this may determine its closeness to the brand's SKU . For example, how many SKUs will have such elements, and what is the quantification of the SKUs in which they appear. When judging the trend, we actually judge the popularity of these popular elements. The higher the popularity, the more relevant product lines appear and the greater the quantitative.

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About cold weather :

Leng Wei, Ph.D., his research field is mainly the comparison of Chinese and Western fashion systems. Clothing business consultants and fashion commentators. His writings include "Weekly Pictorial", Sohu Fashion, and "BoF Fashion Business Review." Its training partners include Vipshop, Condé Nast Fashion Training Center and so on. Visiting Scholars at Parsons School of Design, New York, 2013-14; Fulbright Scholarship, US Government; Master of Fashion Marketing Management, London College of Fashion. Worked at Nike, Belle and Li & Fung Group. His work includes retail, sales, operations, product development, merchandise management, market development and general manager. The main work "Chinese Fashion: Dialogue with Chinese Costume Designers", "Fashion Buyers Practical Handbook". Lengbu also currently offers three online courses: buyers; new career planning; clothing entrepreneurs classroom. For more details, you can follow me on the column; WeChat platform or blog.

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