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If you can cross, will it be better now?

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📌 Reading guide:

  1. Please reserve this article in a quiet environment, reserve 30 minutes of uninterrupted time . Because the article is not easy to read, you will need to complete the homework after reading . The road to truly grow or get rich is not easy .
  2. This article is a lesson in the column, not a share. The whole column is a complete knowledge system . If you have not read the previous articles, you can first pay attention to the column and recommend reading from the first article.
  3. Columns, up to 4 articles per month. The frequency of this update is to tell you that it is not important to see how much and fast, and it is important to try to think deeply and practice in the field .
  4. I want to read the latest column as soon as possible. Please pay attention to the public number "Fuyanshe"

蝴蝶 Butterfly effect


There is a classic series of movies called "Butterfly Effect". The meaning of the film is this:


one day...

The protagonist Evan found that he has the ability to travel through time and space, and can read his own diary, go back to the past, and even change history.



He found Kelly, who she once loved, and found that her life is particularly unsatisfactory. She also chose to commit suicide because she mentioned that she was asked by a perverted father to take a restricted film. ..

The male lord grieves and decides to use the crossing skills to go back to the past and change history!

Since Kelly’s life is miserable, the spirit collapses to commit suicide because there is a perverted father who has an unbearable childhood experience, so I will change this history!


First crossing ...


So, the man passed back to his childhood, and went to the scene with her Kelly to take a restricted film at her house.



After the super power of the man, he sneered at the pervert, and successfully prevented her father from continuing to film...



History has changed...

The man returned this to Kelly for a wonderful childhood...


Back to the present, today's female lord has really become the boyfriend of the male lord. The two are very beautiful, and they live a happy life with the prince and the princess, and they are about to get married~



However, on the night of the marriage proposal, the male owner suddenly discovered that the younger brother of the female master, Tommy, became a big bad guy! Just released from prison and came to trouble yourself...

It turned out that because of the last crossing, the female metamorphosis father transferred this abnormal psychology from the female host to the younger brother Tommy, causing Tommy to be mentally deformed from a young age...


Later, the man and Tommy released a conflict, the man lost his hand and killed Tommy, and was thus imprisoned, the end of a good life...



The man thinks, can't be here but the rest of his life, you have to continue to cross...

Since I am in prison, because Tommy is broken, I will go back to the past and persuade him to become a good person!


Second crossing...


So, the man ran through Tommy’s plot to do bad things when he was a child...



The man wants to make Tommy better, and he persuaded him to put down the butcher's knife and become a Buddha...

The magic is that Tommy is really convinced, and I plan to be a good person again!


Unexpectedly, another partner, "Lani", has been resentful of Tommy, and when Tommy put down the butcher's knife, she did not hold back and killed Tommy!

The male master is dumbfounded...



History has been rewritten...


Back to the present, today's Lenny, because of that incident, was treated as a mental illness, shut it up...

The female host, Kelly, was also disfigured, and the family was ruined by the mad Lenny. Now she has become a drug addiction for prostitutes!



This can't be done, how can my beloved woman become like this...

The man decided to continue to cross...


It was all the pranks of childhood. Lenny was detonated by Tommy in the mailbox of someone else's house. As a result, the homeowner was killed and Lenny would hate Tommy. The man thinks, I just have to go back and stop the tragedy from happening!


Third crossing...


So, the male owner crossed the scene of the detonator when he was a child...



This time, the male rushed forward to protect the owner of the house to be bombed, but he was accidentally bombed into a disabled...

And Lenny became a hero because he saved the owner of the house!


History, once again being rewritten...


Back to the present, the man found that Lenny had been with the woman, and happened to be by her side, doing shameful things...

And myself, has lost his arms and turned into a disabled person...



The man can't think of it, wants to commit suicide....

The result was suicide failure and was rescued...

No way, the man chooses to continue to cross....


The Nth crossing...


In short, the male owner has passed through to the past because of various dissatisfaction in his life, and made various modifications...

However, every time a small change, the result is a more terrible reality than once...


finally…

The film has 3 endings, which is one of the endings.


The male master has completely failed to accept the pain of reality and does not want to cause trouble to others. So, for the last time, he chose to cross back to his mother’s belly and use his umbilical cord to strangle himself in the belly before he was born.



Oops…

Why is this happening?

Why did the first thing that changed in the end changed the whole world?

Clearly possessing super powers, you can arbitrarily modify history in the past, thinking that you can live a perfect life, but why is the status quo worse and worse?

What exactly is going on?


Because, you are in a chaotic world!



📌 a chaotic world


There is no simple causal relationship in this world.

For example, in the film, Tommy is broken, and the man wants to go back to the past and persuade him to be a good person, but the result is the death of the other person...

Behind every thing, there are intricate relationships and structures, and you can't do simple causal attribution!


There is no absolute isolated individual in this world.

Obviously, it is solving the A problem, but the result is the B problem.

For example, in the film, the male lord wants the female lord's perverted father to let go of the female lord, but I did not expect the female lord's younger brother to suffer abuse from childhood...

For another example, you want to increase your income and want to bring a better life to your family. Therefore, you work hard, your performance is getting better and better, and your income is increasing.

Everything seems to be developing in the right direction, but I didn’t expect it to make your time with your family less and less, causing your wife to be dissatisfied with your heart, but you feel that you are embarrassed and the family relationship is contradictory. The happiness of life has declined...


This world is not an eternal state of quiescence.

Clearly solve the current problem, but in the near future, it will bring more trouble.

For example, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, after repackaging inferior assets that could not be sold, was sold as a high-quality asset. I thought it would be a joy to be happy: ordinary people can afford to buy a house, and investors and banks can earn it. A lot of income.

In the long run, the risk is accumulating, the leverage is getting bigger and bigger, and the huge risk is like a constantly stretched rubber band. Finally, one day it can't be stretched. With a click, the global financial crisis broke out!

Countermeasures are sometimes worse than the problem itself!


What should I do?

Do you analyze the problem with linear thinking?

Then you can't see the intricacies behind the problem...

Analyze the problem with structured thinking?

Then you can't see the continuous evolution of the problem in the long river of time...

In the face of this complex, dynamic, chaotic world, you need to master a new way of thinking: systemic thinking


📌 What is the system


Everything in this world is not isolated, but exists in something called a "system." To understand what systemic thinking is, you must first understand what a system is.

What is the system?


The definition given by Baidu: the whole part of the movement, which is formed by mutual interaction and interaction, has a certain function.

Listening is very abstract, let me give you an example:


A bunch of car spare parts, is this a system?


This is obviously not a system. These parts are called: elements.

Then, you can put together the elements and elements in a certain order and make them look like cars.


Then, is it a system now?

Not yet.

Before the car can't start normally, you can only call it a structure, like a toy made with Lego toys, just combining the elements into a structured whole, and there is no interaction between the elements and the elements. Relationship cannot be called a system.


So what can be called a system?

When you assemble all the various elements, the ignition, the car can start, you can drive forward, the elements and elements can interact with each other, and the whole can show a kind of characteristics and functions. This can be called a system.


Reorganize the definition of the system:

By combining multiple elements into a structure in a specific way, by interconnecting and interacting with each other, it becomes a whole with a specific function, called a system.

For example, the human body has a digestive system, a blood circulation system; the city has a transportation system, a financial system; an ecosystem in nature, etc...

From this, we can summarize the four components of the system...


System composition


  1. Element

The system consists of elements, which are what you see in the system.

For example, various components in the automotive power system; blood, blood vessels, and heart in the blood circulation system. Students, teachers, classrooms, books, etc...


Relationship

Relationship is the interconnection and function that you cannot see between elements.

For example, the relationship between the two people, the cooperative relationship, the emotional relationship; the rotation relationship between the steering wheel and the tire; or the rules, the laws of physics, etc...


3. Function / target

A certain structure, coupled with the connection and interaction between the elements, makes the system a whole function-specific whole.

For example, any part of a car can't be moved alone, but when combined into a whole, it has the ability to move at a high speed of 200 km/h.

The composition of the brain is mainly composed of lipids, proteins, sugars, inorganic salts, etc., each of which looks ordinary, but combined in a certain structure and interaction, it has become impossible for us to understand. The brain of consciousness and intelligence.

And, the same elements, in different ways, can be combined into different systems to play a completely different overall function!

For example, graphite and diamond (diamond), the elements that make up them are all carbon atoms, but the carbon atoms between the two, because of the structural relationship, the overall functionality will be very different.

The function of the system is sometimes not obvious. Sometimes there is a function on the surface, and actually there is a function. For example, the school system, on the surface, its purpose is education; but in fact, its purpose may be to make money.


3. Environment

Whether a system can work or not depends on the environment in which the system is located. For example, when a car is on land, it is a well-functioning system that is thrown into water or outer space. The system fails and becomes a pile of scrap iron.

Therefore, when we discuss a system, we should not only focus on the inside of the system, but the system as a whole, to see how the external environment is, how the system interacts with the external environment.

The environment is a larger system. A small system is an element of a large system relative to a large system, just like the Earth is relative to the solar system; the solar system is relative to the Milky Way.



When considering the system as a whole, besides considering its interaction with the big system (environment), it depends on the interaction between him and other elements (small systems) in the big system.

Ok, I know what the system is all about, let’s see what is systemic thinking...


📌 What is systemic thinking


1. Systematic thinking is a way of thinking based on the relationship between elements


A car, bought by 2 million, crashed into a pile of scrap iron, and the value approached zero;

A building, bought by 5 million, was an earthquake, turned into a pile of bricks, and the value approached zero;



What changed the value?

Their elements have not changed, or the materials that make up them become the relationship between the elements. What determines the value of the system is the relationship and structure between the elements, not the elements themselves.


Is the element important?

Of course it is important that there is no system without elements.

However, what is more important than the element is the relationship between the elements. You must learn to see the relationship between the elements rather than staring at the elements themselves.


For example, a small entrepreneurial team of 10 people, you can think of them as a system, everyone is the element of this system.

The elements are important, you can learn from Google, the company only recruits the best people, so that every element is very powerful, but the result? You will find that the cost is getting higher and higher, and the performance is getting worse and worse. Why?

Because the team that really determines the combat effectiveness of this team is the division of labor between them. It is a cooperative mode, a relationship, a shared vision, a process, a system, an incentive, a promotion mechanism, and an equity distribution...


A group of smart people, if unmanaged, are combined into a system with the same goal and mutual cooperation, they will fight for you, each with their own ghosts, whoever does not accept who, each with their own small abacus, and finally the company becomes a loose sand, Nothing can be pushed forward.

There is no division of labor and cooperation, and there is no combination into an effective system. Don't say that three stinkers are the top ones, and 30,000 are useless.

The purpose of management is to combine a group of people into an effective system so that they can become a team.


Invisible relationships are more important than visible elements. The first step in systemic thinking is to shift your perspective from elements to relationships.



2. Systematic thinking is a practice of "seeing the whole"


Many organizations operate inefficiently, first because of system problems, not human problems. You have to extend from a partial problem to the perspective of the entire system to the overall analysis.


How can we see the whole?

You can look at it in three ways:


A. To see the internal structure of the system


For example, if the car fails to turn, you can't see the problem when you stare at the steering wheel and the tire. Any element is an inseparable part of the system. You can't separate it from the whole. You can see the whole system, all the related internals. Structure, otherwise there will be a headache, and you will change your steering wheel. Maybe you will turn the problem more seriously.

In the system, the change of any one element does not affect the causal relationship on a straight line, but it will take the whole body and push the gourd.

Only by seeing all the relationships and structures can we find the leverage solution in the system.


B. To see the overall characteristics of the system


For example, the brain composed of lipids, proteins, sugars, inorganic salts, etc., has emerged the ability to transcend these substances, such as intelligence, emotion, and self-will; the brain can be used to solve equations, can be used to fall in love, and Write beautiful music, imagine beautiful pictures... and these abilities are not available to make up their elements.

When you analyze the problem, in addition to seeing the elements, relationships, and structures under the whole, you must also see the characteristics and functions that emerge from the entire system. The overall function and system goals are oriented to optimize the internal structure and elements of the system. .

In this way, listening to a bit of abstraction, I will give you an example:


In the 2018 World Cup, the Argentine team, which was highly anticipated, was in a downturn and eventually missed the top 8.


After the game, the spearhead naturally pointed to Messi, who has the title of the world's best player of the five years. Some people say that he is too tired. Some people say that he is injured. Some people say that he lacks leadership...

In short, he did not show the strength he deserved in Argentina.

But is this really the case?

In any case, Messi will attract at least two or even more people to grab the ball. The following screenshots are everywhere in the game:



In Argentina, Messi could not find a pass, usually going to a hard fight and then missing the opportunity...

Some people will say that Messi is too alone; or his teammates around him, too unaware...

But why is this a good opportunity in Barcelona?

Barcelona's teammates will quickly move to fill the area near Messi, and it is convenient for Messi to pass the ball. This makes the opponent's players have a dilemma. Maybe the defending player is not close, Messi's ball has already been sent out...



From the point of view of factors, it may be because in Barcelona, ​​Messi has better teammates around them, their sense of running position is better; but from a system point of view, what Barcelona uses is a more advanced modern The football system is called "tiki-taka".


For the specific introduction of Tiki-taka, interested students can make their own Baidu.


In short, this kind of football system will make the whole team cooperate with the clouds, and let the Messi superstar in the system feel like a duck in the system, so that the opponent feels particularly terrible, you have to come over to grab the ball of Messi, Messi will immediately put The ball is passed to teammates; if you stare at other players, Messi will be free to move with the ball!


Messi is the product of the La Masia youth training camp at the Barcelona Club of Spain. He accepted this systematic play from an early age, and the Argentine club did not have this style of play.

Messi, not only belongs to Argentina; Messi, but also belongs to the system.


Therefore, Argentina wants to revive its glory. It is not a powerful element to change Messi. It is not to give him a few better teammates. It is to pull the eyes to the whole and improve from a systemic point of view. ...



C. To see the external structure of the system


As a whole, it is an element of a larger system.

You must consider not only the interaction of a certain element within the system, but also the interaction between the entire system as an element and the external system.


For example, if you design a car, you should not only consider the internal structure of the car, but also consider how the transportation system of the car is in the future. Is it in a bustling metropolis or an endless desert? Is it a passionate racing track or a future capital filled with sensors? Different external systems cause the internal system to have a different configuration when designing the car.


In addition to considering interactions with external systems, consider the interactions with other elements in the external system.


For example, when you are thinking about how to improve your work performance, you should not only consider work-related matters, but also consider the impact on family, learning, and social interaction, because these systems all have one thing in common: you Only 24 hours a day.

Therefore, they will affect each other, you have to put these factors into it, and consider them comprehensively.

The elements serve the system, the local services are the whole, and the small systems are affected by the large systems.

Therefore, the second step of systemic thinking is to pull your perspective from the local to the whole.


3. Systematic thinking is a "dynamic" perspective


This world is not a movement you make, it leads to a result, but every time you do an action, it will be added to a system, and then along with the system, constantly evolve, resulting in many results.


For example, because you have helped a fallen grandmother on the road, the grandmother's son has become your big customer, so you have achieved outstanding results, and you are particularly happy to be promoted and raised.

But this is not over. After you are promoted, it will bring you more resources. It will force you to improve your ability to adapt to this new position, and these will bring you income again. Once again, the resources allocated to you have become more....

This is not over yet, your income has become more, your position has become higher, and it may increase your attraction of the opposite sex, achieve a good marriage, and provide you with better educational resources for your future children....

And all this, maybe because that time, you reached out and helped a fallen grandmother...


Therefore, from the perspective of the system to think about the problem, anything is not a static moment, do action A, get the result B, it is over, but will continue to evolve, no end...

Like the name of the movie at the beginning of the article: the butterfly effect, a butterfly in the rainforest of the Amazon River in South America, occasionally flapping a few wings, can cause a tornado in Texas in the United States two weeks later...


When you think about the past, have you made a few small decisions that looked very unremarkable at the time, causing you to have a completely different life now?

So, how will your current decision affect the future of life?

This is a constantly evolving chaotic world. The third step of systemic thinking is to turn your perspective from static to dynamic, and join the fourth dimension of time, allowing you to see the evolutionary process behind things.


Well, say so much systemic thinking, then, how do you master this systematic thinking?



基本 Basic concepts of systemic thinking


First show you the simplest system form:

Suppose you want to take a hot bath now:

  • You turn on the tap and start to adjust the temperature...
  • The water that started out is very cool. You want to raise the temperature a little, so you turn the water temperature control valve and the water temperature starts to rise slowly.
  • Gradually, you feel too hot, want to lower the temperature, so you reverse the water temperature control valve, the water temperature begins to slowly decline;
  • After a few seconds, it feels too cold, you turn the hot water valve again to increase the water temperature...
  • After repeated this several times, I finally reached a comfortable temperature.


This process seems to be very daily, but it is a system composed of four elements: water temperature control valve, current water temperature, temperature difference between body temperature and target water temperature. It is shown in the following way, like the following:

Assuming the water temperature is 10 ° C at the beginning, the target temperature you feel comfortable is 37 ° C.

  • The current body temperature difference = 37-10 = 27 ° C, which will affect your turning water temperature control valve: heat adjustment, target 27 ° C
  • The rotation of the water temperature regulating valve causes the water temperature to change in the same direction. In the process of up-regulation, the actual change of the water temperature may have a delay of several seconds;
  • Now that the water temperature has risen by 30 °C, the body temperature difference will decrease and become -7 °C. The new body temperature difference will further affect the direction and size of the water temperature control valve: because it becomes a negative number, it will rotate in the opposite direction. , lower a little temperature...
  • This cycle is repeated until the target water temperature is reached.



Next, I will simplify this diagram:

  • Red arrow and plus sign:
    represents the change of the two elements in the same direction (A enhancement, B enhancement);


  • Blue arrow and minus sign:
    represents the opposite direction of the two elements (A enhancement, B reduction);


  • The symbol :// added to the arrow indicates that
    there is a time delay in the interaction between the two elements, and the change will come slowly;


In this way, a complex interaction between multiple elements can be clearly drawn on paper. We call this: system diagram. All subsequent systematic thinking processes will be expressed in the form of such system diagrams.

With these preparations, the next step is to begin to talk about the specific content of systemic thinking. Let me first talk about a few basic concepts in systemic thinking:


1. Three basic feedbacks


Feedback is the basic building block of a system that describes the relationship between features and elements in a system.

In all the system diagrams, there are only three basic feedback methods. You have already seen them in the case. They are:


  1. Positive feedback: represents a positive proportional relationship between two elements, A enhancement, B enhancement, represented by an arrow and "+":


2 negative feedback: represents an inverse proportional relationship between the two elements, A enhancement, B reduction, with arrows and "-" means:



3 Delayed feedback: represents the interaction between two elements, not immediately, A occurs, after a period of time, B will react, adding " //" to the arrow means:


2. Two basic circuits


Light has elements and feedback, and it can't be a system. As mentioned earlier, to be a system, they have to be able to run, produce certain characteristics or achieve a certain purpose.

In systemic thinking, this has the simplest system style with a specific function, called: loop .

It looks like you use wires to connect the two poles of a battery to a light bulb that forms the most basic closed circuit that can operate.

There are two basic loops:


  1. An enhanced loop: or a positive feedback loop, is a loop that is connected by two or more positive feedbacks.


Enhancing the loop will make the elements in this system continue to enhance like snowballs.

For example, why is the richer getting richer? Even gradually formed class solidification?

This is because the increase of wealth will bring about the imbalance of resource allocation, and the imbalance of resources will bring about the essential difference in the competitiveness of everyone, which further leads to the upward gathering of wealth, the richer the rich!


The enhanced loop not only causes the system to continue to increase in the good direction, but also in the bad direction until it collapses.

For example, the panic caused by the fall in the stock market led to an increase in stock selling, which further led to a fall in the stock market.


We talked about the concept of "complex interest" in the fourth lesson. The essence is to build an enhancement loop.



2. Regulating loop: The regulating loop is a loop consisting of one negative feedback (or singular) plus several positive feedbacks.


The function of the regulation loop is to stabilize the system or achieve a certain goal.

For example, the process we used to regulate the water heater is a regulation loop that allows the water temperature to reach and stabilize at a certain temperature.


For example, in order to keep the company competitive, you need to ensure a certain turnover rate within the company.

Too high a ratio means an increase in recruitment costs and a loss of performance; too low means that the staff is bloated, the assessment is too loose, and your team will become less and less combative. How to do?

After statistics, the 10% final elimination rate is a relatively healthy wastage rate. Therefore, you need to design a regulation loop to control the turnover rate by adjusting the assessment indicators:


📌Two structural models


Knowing the feedback and the loop, now we can start drawing the system diagram based on the problem?

Still not.


If the analogy is compared to an electronic component, and the feedback method is like a wire, then simply by connecting the electronic components with wires one by one into a system, perhaps a simple structure is OK, if it is to build a complex system, To ensure that the system can run stably and efficiently, the efficiency of this method is very low.

It's like installing a computer host, you don't need to solder every component and wire, design a computer from scratch, this way is not only slow, but also wrong...


then what should we do?

You only need to assemble the already packaged modules such as motherboard, graphics card, memory, CPU, hard disk, etc.

If we can put some common system structures, it can also be packaged into an integrated circuit like this, and it can be used directly, which can greatly improve the efficiency of building a system.

Systematic thinking has evolved to date, and there have been some modular structures. Next, I will introduce you to the two most common basic structures. They exist in many scenes of our daily life. The complex systems of the future can also be formed by simple deformation, splitting and combination. .


Structure 1: Growth ceiling


I just mentioned a basic loop called: enhanced loop. When you see it, I don't know if there is any doubt:

  • Will this enhancement continue?
  • Is compound interest growth forever?
  • Will wealthy families always have more money?


But why do we always say that we are rich for three generations?

The stock fell, causing a panic selling, causing the stock market to jump from the 10-meter springboard, but there will always be a moment when the water stops.

Chicken eggs, eggs and chickens, I feel that I have to get rich and get rich, but why can't many people play?

Compound interest seems to have limits, and the growth loop will also stop. What is the reason?

This is because, in the process of enhancement, the system will produce some side effects of inhibition enhancement, and the accumulation of side effects will in turn restrict the enhancement loop, eventually leading to an enhanced stop, and even make it go down.


This is the "growth cap" structural model in systemic thinking:

It consists of an "enhancement loop" plus a "regulation loop". At the beginning, the system operates as the "enhanced loop" on the left side, as the target element continues to increase; the "regulation loop" on the right begins to start, and Constantly limit the enhancement, eventually stopping the enhancement of the left circle and even starting to increase in the reverse direction.

For example, chicken eggs, eggs and chickens seem to be very good, but as the number of chickens continues to increase, the farming complexity brought by scale has also risen geometrically, which puts a severe test on your management ability. !


Plague, pollution, hydropower, etc., will happen frequently because of your lack of management ability. A large number of chickens will start to die due to various accidents and mismanagement. A plague, two-hour power outage... can make the whole raise The chicken farm was destroyed.

The impact, such as the occurrence of a malignant plague, will continue to ferment, causing you to face huge indemnities, causing you to go bankrupt...


What should you do if you find yourself entering a system of "growth caps"?


Most people will choose to continue the cycle of the left circle, because this method has been effective and brought exponential growth, and now it is stagnant, then I should work harder....

For example, your company has launched a new product. By placing a large number of advertisements, the sales volume of the products has increased sharply, and the money has increased. So you started to put more advertisements. The more the products are sold, the more sales are exponential. Growth, this is an enhanced loop....

However, if the product is sold much, the output will have to be upgraded; if the output is increased, you may have to increase the manpower, and the complexity of management will increase; if the management complexity is increased, the defective rate will increase, and the defective product will be produced. The rate will affect the user's word of mouth, the user's bad reviews will increase, it will affect the sales of your products...


At this time, if you choose to continue to the left and continue to increase the amount of advertising, you will find that the sales of the product has become weak, and even because of the negative information on the market, this time, On the contrary, it will bring counter-effects, causing a lot of ridicule and return, resulting in a rapid decline in sales, turning into a reverse enhancement loop...


What should I do?


If you find yourself in a system of "growth caps", you should find the " restrictions " in the right loop , such as the "management capabilities" in the chicken farm case, and the "products" in the new product sales case. "Control ability", they are the leverage solution , and the "restriction factor" can be used to open the upper limit and let the reinforcement circuit on the left continue to operate in a healthy manner.

Of course, not all "restrictions" will eventually be eliminated, such as market capacity, which will allow you to grow and eventually reach the limit.


Structure 2:


Going back to the chicken farm case, the farming complexity is getting higher and higher, and the risk of the flock is getting bigger and bigger. What should you do?

Increase manpower? Improve the frequency of cleaning? Add antibiotics to the feed?

These behaviors can solve problems quickly in a short period of time, but they will generate new and more serious problems in the long-term process; or these problems will appear again and again, you need to constantly solve them and become firefighters. Players.


What should I do?

The really effective solution is to introduce a whole set of scientific modern chicken system , from hardware facilities to software management, all standardized, streamlined...


I heard that you may have grown up. How much does it cost and how much time does it take? What about my current facilities? What about people? Move another venue? Just kidding.... There is a problem now. How do you tell me how to solve it?

Well, you are right, so you can only be a firefighter...


More important work is fire prevention than fire fighting. If you feel that the fire prevention work is troublesome and you don't do it, you will do the firefighting every day. The system structure behind such problems is called:


The structure of "returning to the end" consists of two "regulation loops". Both loops want to solve the problem. The upper loop represents a "symptom solution" that can quickly solve the problem, but the effect is only temporary. The following loop is a "fundamental solution" that can solve the problem fundamentally, but there is a time delay, slow effect, high cost, and difficulty, but it can last forever.

In addition, in the process of using the "symptomatic solution", there are side effects, and an enhancement loop is implied, making the symptoms of the problem more difficult to solve in the future:

Note: 2 negative feedback (even) = positive feedback, so this is an enhanced loop


For example, in the case of chicken farms, the problem is that chickens are prone to plague. The symptom is to give them feeds with antibiotics for a long time. On the surface, the chicken epidemic is controlled, but if long-term consumption of antibiotics will bring The side effects are drug residues, which develop resistance and evolve into superbugs, which will further harm the health of the flock and humans, and gradually lose the original fundamental solution, which will eventually make the problem more serious and more difficult to solve.


The structure of the end of the house is very common in our daily lives, such as:

Being sick is a "symptom". Going to the hospital to see a doctor is a "symptom solution." Going to the hospital can quickly alleviate the condition. The "fundamental solution" is a healthy diet and exercise, which takes a long time and is slow. If you don't exercise and control your diet, your body will get worse and you need to go to the hospital regularly. And you will feel that anyway, going to the hospital to see a doctor can also treat, you are even more reluctant to take the time to exercise, the worse the body...

Low income is a "symptom". It is a "symptom solution" to work part-time after work. A part-time job can increase income quickly, and a "fundamental solution" is to improve one's ability, which takes a long time and is slow. If you often do part-time jobs, you don't have time to improve your abilities. This will cause your competitiveness to become lower and lower in your peers, further affecting your income, so you need to do more part-time jobs.. .

The reason why we are so obsessed with headaches is that because the symptoms are simple and can be quickly effective, it will make us addicted, let us rely on this solution, and we are even less willing to use the fundamentals. solution...

The side effects caused by the symptomatic solution will make us lose the ability to solve the fundamental problem in the future. When we want to turn back, it is too late, and eventually it is incurable and hopeless.


This is like a lot of companies. After encountering problems, give a solution that they think is very smart. For example, if the performance is poor, the incentive scale will be improved. I believe that there must be a brave man under the reward. At the time, it may be very effective, but over time, the consequences of this solution are even more serious than the original problem, such as performance fraud, bullying customers, or the company is losing money, while employees’ income is increase...

At this time, if you don't give it back, the medicine can't stop, if you don't give it, you won't do it. If you stop the performance, you will lose it. It’s too late...

There is a kind of sorrow, called late sorrow; there is a kind of desolation, called powerlessness...


If you are suffering from a problem...

And you, have tried many solutions, it seems to have improved a lot, but not long after, the problem reappears, even worse and more violent, you feel a sense of powerlessness...

Then, you have to be careful, maybe, you have stepped into this endless loop of death...


How to do?


Try to draw a system diagram that shows the problem and find the symptom solution and the root solution of the problem. Then?

Of course, choose to enter the loop below, and avoid the loop above.

Don't be embarrassed because of the road, the road is right, the time will give you the answer!


Well, after talking about the basics and two basic structures, how do we use systemic thinking to solve problems after encountering problems?

Finally, I will use a case to illustrate the complete process of systemic thinking.


📌Systematic thinking


Or take a question from a class to give an example:

This is the result of a structured analysis in our previous lesson. It splits a problem into many parts, and each part is MECE-to-work with each other. The disassembly is very comprehensive.

Next, we will begin to use systemic thinking for further analysis.


The use of systematic thinking does not mean that we must abandon structured thinking. Structured thinking allows us to think about things completely. This is the foundation. Systematic thinking is based on this foundation, helping us to find the relationship between the elements and discover the internal structure of the whole event. At the same time, we can raise the perspective and let us see the whole picture and establish a whole concept. And with the dynamic timeline, we can see the future direction of things.

How to do it?


The first step, starting with the regulation loop, describes the system


A system exists to achieve a certain goal or function, and the role of the regulation loop is to make the system's running direction to a specific target.

Therefore, drawing a system diagram can generally start with the system and start with a regulation loop to describe the system.


First of all, let's look at the question: How to complete 1 million sales in the next three months?


Excuse me, is this a correct goal for the system, or is it a function to be implemented?

No, this is a short-term task.

If a team is a system, then the goal of this system should be to win the league title, or the winning percentage is over 70%, instead of winning the next game. A game is just a task in the process of achieving the goal. This is like adding some oil to the system and letting the system run faster during this time.

Therefore, from a system perspective, the goal of the system should be long-term, such as what to achieve in 3 years; or state, such as what effect to achieve every day, every month.


Therefore, we can adjust the system's goal to: monthly sales of 500,000.

This is a stateful goal that can be used to more clearly measure the current production capacity of the system.

Then, according to this goal, draw the two elements of the "status and target gap" in the adjustment loop to form the first part of the system:

So how does today's sales come about?

Sales are generated through your current "sales system", and the higher the efficiency of the sales system, the higher the sales today;

How can the performance gap improve the efficiency of the sales system?

We can try to set the KPI for the team before the performance is reached, and use the pressure tools to drive the sales system:

In this way, a basic regulation loop is completed.

Of course, the sales system is also a complex structure, consisting of marketing, channels, people, methods, etc. Due to limited space and different business methods of each company, I will not disassemble, we will sell the whole. The system, as an element, is treated in this larger system as a whole. You can try to disassemble it according to the situation of your company's business. For details, please refer to the content of the previous lesson.


The second step is to optimize the structure, complete the system diagram, and find the leverage solution.


Our goal is to improve "current sales", and from the current system structure, only when the team performance is not up to standard, KPI will play a role, use pressure to promote the sales system, and once the performance is up to standard, the team will not continue. The power of sales, and even the performance of the month will be used for next month, what should I do?

In a system, the driving force for growth comes from the “enhancement loop”. We need to find a way to build an enhanced loop in the system and let the system continue to enhance.

Therefore, we can try to use part of the new performance as an incentive to drive the sales system to continue to operate, forming an enhanced loop:


In this way, under the standard, the system will go outside and use the “pressure tools” to power the sales system;

On the standard, the system will enter the inner ring and use the “incentive tool” to continue to provide power to the sales system. The higher the sales, the more incentives, the greater the team's power, and the higher the sales volume...


Now that the reinforcement loop has emerged, we need to immediately think about whether there will be a "growth cap" structure.

That is, the more products are sold, will there be other side effects?


Well, of course, the more products are sold, the pressure on the end of the product supply will definitely increase. The quality of the products and the quality of service may be reduced. For example, the guests of the hotel suddenly come a lot, the waiters are in a hurry, the chef is not salted. Minute…

This will lead to an increase in the rate of defective products, a decline in the user experience, and an increase in the bad reviews, which will in turn limit the increase in sales, and a familiar growth cap structure has emerged. Therefore, we can continue to draw a system diagram of this part on the right side of the system diagram:


Note: The increase in sales volume may also lead to the emergence of new competitors and other auxiliary aids, which in turn limit the enhancement loop. For the system in the case is not too complicated, we only set the "defect rate increase" for the time being. This side effect is used as a case description.


With this system diagram, our leverage solution has already surfaced. As a system structure of "growth cap", the key lies in two points:


  1. Ensure the normal operation of the left loop:

Formulating a suitable KPI is too high to enter the inner ring. If it is too low, it will not generate pressure. It will set up an incentive mechanism to allow excess returns and continue to promote the operation of the system.


2. Remove the limiting factors of the right loop:

Invest enough resources to improve team quality control and ensure product quality.

From the perspective of structured thinking, we will find that there are many things to do, and we can't distinguish between the primary and secondary; but if we pull up to the perspective of the system, we will find it easier to find the key links.


The third step is to look up the sky and put it into the big system.


Wait, how are some of the key elements in the system not seen?

For example, user needs? product design? company strategy? Team management? Talent used to stay?

At present, this system is only a system diagram of a certain business level. To see what we have just said, we need to take a high perspective and regard the entire business system as an element and put it into a larger structure:


For example, we put it in the entire company's operating system:

Use the business that can bring a lot of cash flow in the company to provide ammunition to the business in the case, give people, give money, and give resources to help the business grow into a star business faster.


Then pull the perspective and pull up another dimension...

Think of the entire company's business as an element, and put it in the entire market environment to analyze:

In this way, we can analyze the system-by-layer analysis from a more macro level, from top to bottom, to find a more suitable development strategy, product strategy, marketing strategy...

Of course, you can also divide more dimensions, such as refining the sales system, product system, the company's human resources system, etc...

However, it is not that we have to look at every corner of the world to analyze any problem, and to find the most relevant system structure for analysis.


📌 A whole new world...

Once you have the system thinking, the world you see will be different from the original one...


You no longer float on the surface, the observation will be more depth...

You can gain insight into the nature of things, see relationships that others cannot see, discover the laws behind things, find the most critical links, and use small and big to make it simple and complicated!


You are no longer limited to local, the observation will be more broad...

Not only can you see the complex structure within the system, but you can also see the overall characteristics outside the system. You can fly over the 30,000-meter high view and look at the whole picture!


You are no longer trapped in the moment, observation will be more far-sighted...

You can move the stopped pendulum, let time pass through to the future, see the dynamic development of the event, predict the evolutionary trend of the future, stand in the future, see today!


However, all this is just the tip of the iceberg...

This world is far more complicated than we can imagine!

Fortunately, systemic thinking gives us a glimmer of light from the chaotic world. If you can have this ability, maybe you can discover the simple beauty behind this chaos, the world in your eyes, maybe And it will be different!


At the beginning of the next lesson, we will enter a new module "problem solving"

With analytical methods and thinking tools, we can make our brains begin to think more efficiently, and we can analyze the problem comprehensively and thoroughly. It's like you are a doctor, facing a patient, you can now analyze the condition not only by pulse, body temperature, blood test, etc.; now you will also learn to use ECG, EEG, X-ray, nuclear magnetic Resonance...etc. A variety of advanced instruments that provide a more comprehensive picture of the patient's information.


So what should I do next?

How do you choose the most appropriate prescription based on the results of these analyses?


Let’s see you in the next lesson~


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